Effects of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of the Threatened Species Rhododendron purdomii in Qinling-Daba Mountains of Central China: Implications for Conservation

The plant species in the mountainous regions might be relatively more vulnerable to climate change. Understanding the potential effects of climate change on keystone species, such as Rhododendron species in the subalpine and alpine ecosystems, is critically important for montane ecosystems management and conservation. In this study, we used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, 53 distribution records, and 22 environmental variables to predict the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of the endemic and vulnerable species Rhododendron purdomii in China. The main environmental variables affecting the habitat suitability of R. purdomii were altitude, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, slope, and isothermality. Our results found suitable distribution areas of R. purdomii concentrated continuously in the Qinling-Daba Mountains of Central China under different climate scenarios, indicating that these areas could potentially be long-term climate refugia for this species. The suitable distribution areas of R. purdomii will expand under the SSP126 (2070s), SSP585 (2050s), and SSP585 (2070s) scenarios, but may be negatively influenced under the SSP126 (2050s) scenario. Moreover, the potential distribution changes of R. purdomii showed the pattern of northward shift and west–east migration in response to climate change, and were mainly limited to the marginal areas of species distribution. Finally, conservation strategies, such as habitat protection and assisted migration, are recommended. Our findings will shed light on biotic responses to climate change in the Qinling-Daba Mountains region and provide guidance for the effective conservation of other endangered tree species.