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Stochastic Spatial Binary Simulation with Multivariate Normal Distribution for Illustrating Future Evolution of Umbrella-Shape Summer Shelter under Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Taesam Lee

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju 52828, Republic of Korea)

  • Younghwan Choi

    (Urban Design Department, Land and Housing Corporation, Jinju 52852, Republic of Korea)

  • Vijay P. Singh

    (Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-2117, USA
    National Water & Energy Center, UAE University, Al Ain 15551, United Arab Emirates)

Abstract

Surface temperature has increased due to the impact of climate change, and the related weather events, such as heat waves and urban heat island, are occurring more frequently than before. Local governments and planners consider these impacts of climate change and try to avoid them. One of the mainly used structural tools is building summer shelters. A critical issue for urban planners is to test how many shelters should be added and how to distribute the shelters to cope with the impact of climate change. Stochastic simulation models can be a good option to randomize locations of shelters and to see how beneficial for living the shelters can be. Therefore, a novel stochastic simulation model is proposed for distributing summer shelters for coping with the climate change impact. This study proposes a stochastic spatial binary simulation with multivariate normal distribution (SSBM) which contains two major procedures consisting of (1) simulation-based derivation of the empirical function and (2) stochastic simulation of spatial binary data with multivariate normal distribution and the derived empirical function. The proposed model is applied to a case study in Jinju City, South Korea, for the umbrella-shape summer shelters (USS). Results concluded that the proposed SSBM reproduced the statistical characteristics of USS and can be a good alternative to model the locations of USS, including the impact of climate change and investigating the evolution of the USS in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Taesam Lee & Younghwan Choi & Vijay P. Singh, 2023. "Stochastic Spatial Binary Simulation with Multivariate Normal Distribution for Illustrating Future Evolution of Umbrella-Shape Summer Shelter under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-19, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:4:p:3147-:d:1062598
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Do-Woo Kim & Ravinesh Deo & Jea-Hak Chung & Jong-Seol Lee, 2016. "Projection of heat wave mortality related to climate change in Korea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 623-637, January.
    2. Kiyoshi Takahashi & Yasushi Honda & Seita Emori, 2007. "Assessing Mortality Risk from Heat Stress due to Global Warming," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 339-354, April.
    3. Taesam Lee & Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, 2018. "Conditional stochastic simulation model for spatial downscaling for assessing the effects of climate change on hydro-meteorological variables," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 163-180, October.
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