Dynamic Analysis of the Carbon Footprint in Winter Wheat Production Based on Lifecycle Assessment and the LMDI Model: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province in China

This study applies the lifecycle assessment (LCA) to quantify the carbon footprint within the winter wheat production system in Jiangsu Province during 2011–2020. Additionally, the study employs the Logarithmic Mean Division Index (LMDI) to analyze the driving factors behind its changes. The results show that (1) the greenhouse gas emissions from wheat production in the region increased from 4837.8 kgCO 2 -eq/hm 2 to 5701.1 kgCO 2 -eq/hm 2 with an annual average increase of 95.9 kgCO 2 -eq/hm 2 ; (2) the primary carbon sequestration method for wheat production in Jiangsu Province is straw returning; (3) the carbon footprint of wheat at yield scale and value scale generally increased during the period, whereas the carbon footprint at cost scale decreased over the years; (4) the driving factors effects’ cumulative contribution rates are as follows: economic level > population size > employment structure > production structure > production efficiency. This research explores the dynamic changes and driving factors influencing the carbon footprint associated with winter wheat production in Jiangsu Province, which could provide theoretical references for the future clean production of winter wheat.