Author
Abstract
Rule-defined rankings often transform continuous marks, discrete judgments, trimming rules, caps, truncation, and tie-breaking variables into a single official order. When ranking margins are small, a formally valid outcome may nevertheless be sensitive to marginal changes in the recorded decision state. This article presents Score Cloud Analysis as a rule-aware statistical sensitivity-reporting method for such systems. The method represents the official score as a deterministic function of recorded inputs and recomputes scores and ranks under finite perturbations, rather than relying on local linear approximations. It defines deterministic diagnostics, including directional Group A/Group C (A/C) decision exposures and their aggregate contested-point exposure, total sensitivity exposure, fragility-to-margin ratios, Score Cloud overlap, and single-call rank sensitivity, and separates these from scenario-conditional Monte Carlo Rank Cloud frequencies. The method is illustrated using a synthetic Wushu Taolu case study because that setting contains majority decisions, trimmed rater marks, discrete difficulty values, Head Judge adjustments, and tie-break rules. The synthetic experiment is an internal-consistency stress test, not an empirical validation and not an estimate of judging-error rates. A small sensitivity study varies perturbation scale and intra-athlete dependence to show which conclusions are scenario-specific. The method separates procedural validity from local rank robustness and is transferable to other reconstructable, rule-based, rater-mediated ranking systems.
Suggested Citation
Sebastiano Ettore Spoto, 2026.
"Score Cloud Analysis for Rule-Aware Ranking Robustness Under Discrete Judgment Uncertainty,"
Stats, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-17, August.
Handle:
RePEc:gam:jstats:v:9:y:2026:i:5:p:87-:d:2023090
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