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A Utility-Driven Bayesian Design: A New Framework for Extracting Optimal Experiments from Observational Reliability Data

Author

Listed:
  • Rossella Berni

    (Department of Statistics Computer Science Applications “G. Parenti”, University of Florence, Viale Morgagni 59, 50134 Florence, Italy)

  • Nedka Dechkova Nikiforova

    (Department of Statistics Computer Science Applications “G. Parenti”, University of Florence, Viale Morgagni 59, 50134 Florence, Italy)

  • Federico Mattia Stefanini

    (Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of Milan, Via Celoria 2, 20133 Milan, Italy)

Abstract

In this study, a procedure to build Bayesian optimal designs using utility functions and exploiting existing data is proposed. The procedure is illustrated through a case study in the field of reliability, by applying a hierarchical Bayesian model and performing Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations. Two innovative contributions are introduced: (i) the definition of specific utility functions that involve several key issues and (ii) the use of observational data. The use of observational data makes it possible to build the optimal design without additional costs for the company, while the definition of the utility functions accounts for the specific characteristics of the reliability study. Features like model residuals, i.e., discrepancies between observed and predicted response values, and the costs of the electronic component are addressed. Costs are also weighted considering the environmental impact. Satisfactory results are obtained and subsequently validated through an in-depth sensitivity analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Rossella Berni & Nedka Dechkova Nikiforova & Federico Mattia Stefanini, 2026. "A Utility-Driven Bayesian Design: A New Framework for Extracting Optimal Experiments from Observational Reliability Data," Stats, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jstats:v:9:y:2026:i:1:p:9-:d:1845959
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