Oil Prices, Monetary Conditions, and Growth Dynamics in Saudi Arabia: Evidence from an ARDL–ECM and VAR Approach

This study examines the dynamic relationships among oil prices, monetary conditions, and nominal GDP growth in Saudi Arabia, with particular attention to short-run adjustment and long-run equilibrium patterns in an oil-dependent economy operating under a fixed exchange-rate regime. Rather than identifying structural monetary policy shocks, the study focuses on reduced-form dynamic associations between market-based monetary indicators, oil-price movements, and nominal economic activity. Using a high-frequency monthly dataset covering key macroeconomic variables, the analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework to estimate both short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships. An Error Correction Model (ECM) is used to capture the speed of adjustment toward equilibrium, while Granger causality tests assess short-term predictive linkages. The empirical results reveal that monetary indicators, particularly interest rates and money supply, exhibit lagged and non-monotonic associations with nominal GDP growth, reflecting delayed transmission under exchange-rate constraints. Oil-price movements emerge as a dominant driver, showing strong contemporaneous and lagged associations with growth, whereas inflation and exchange-rate movements display limited short-run predictive relevance. The ECM results indicate relatively rapid convergence toward long-run equilibrium, suggesting efficient adjustment dynamics. Granger causality findings further confirm the short-term predictive content of key macroeconomic variables. By integrating high-frequency data with ARDL–ECM estimation, VAR-based robustness checks, and sensitivity analysis, the study provides evidence on how oil-price movements, liquidity conditions, and interest-rate dynamics jointly shape growth fluctuations in Saudi Arabia.