Agricultural Expansion and Forest Transition in Mozambique: Evidence of Premature Decoupling (2001–2024)

This study analyzes forest cover change patterns, agricultural expansion, and economic growth in Mozambique from 2001 to 2024, using remote sensing data from Global Forest Watch and socioeconomic indicators from the World Bank and FAO. Mozambique lost approximately 4.6 million hectares of forest during the analyzed period, with agriculture accounting for 97.4% of total deforestation. GDP per capita increased by 90.5%, while cultivated area expanded by 116.4%. However, agricultural productivity declined by 25.3%, revealing a paradox: production growth relied on extensive land expansion rather than intensification. Statistical analysis of three 8-year sub-periods identified significant differences in GDP per capita, agricultural GDP per capita, population, and agricultural employment ( p < 0.001), but agricultural deforestation remained statistically stable ( p = 0.065). This pattern suggests premature decoupling between economic growth and deforestation at income levels (USD 604) substantially below historical Environmental Kuznets Curve thresholds (USD 8000–10,000). However, this decoupling is fragile, driven by capital-intensive extractive sectors that generate GDP growth without absorbing rural populations. The persistence of extensive agricultural expansion, combined with weak governance, demographic pressures, and climate variability, indicates that observed stabilization represents an initial, vulnerable phase requiring structural transformation through agricultural intensification, inclusive industrialization, land tenure reform, and climate resilience building.