Editorial Predictors of the Discontinuation of Open Access Scientific Journals in Scopus: An Analysis from DOAJ

Open access (OA) has expanded scholarly publishing, yet concerns remain about the sustainability of journals indexed in selective databases. This study analyzes editorial predictors of discontinuation among 8730 journals simultaneously registered in the Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ) and indexed in Scopus, including 58 (0.66%) discontinued titles as of June 2025 (latest available update at the time of data extraction). The analyses revealed that a journal’s history of prior discontinuation was the strongest and most consistent predictor of future instability, confirming that discontinuation follows a path-dependent pattern rather than isolated events. Financial structure also played a decisive role: journals applying other editorial fees beyond standard article processing charges (APCs) were nearly four times more likely to experience discontinuation (IRR = 3.877, p = 0.048), while those following standardized APC models showed a protective but non-significant tendency (IRR = 0.378, p = 0.084). Journal age exhibited a modest yet significant positive effect (IRR = 1.032, p = 0.031), suggesting that older titles face a gradual accumulation of risk over time. By contrast, editorial practices such as plagiarism detection, waiver policies, and turnaround time showed no significant association. Overall, the findings indicate that discontinuation in Scopus-indexed OA journals is statistically associated with historical trajectories, financial transparency, and governance capacity, rather than by routine editorial procedures.