IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v14y2026i9p1453-d1928804.html

Optimizing Maintenance Contract Pricing Through Comprehensive Risk Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Bruno Pereira

    (Sonae MCretail, 4464-501 Matosinhos, Portugal
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Manuel Cruz

    (LEMA-Laboratório de Engenharia Matemática, Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto, Instituto Politécnico do Porto, Rua Dr. António Bernardino de Almeida, 4249-015 Porto, Portugal
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Jorge Santos

    (LEMA-Laboratório de Engenharia Matemática, Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto, Instituto Politécnico do Porto, Rua Dr. António Bernardino de Almeida, 4249-015 Porto, Portugal
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Cristina Lopes

    (LEMA-Laboratório de Engenharia Matemática, Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto, Instituto Politécnico do Porto, Rua Dr. António Bernardino de Almeida, 4249-015 Porto, Portugal
    CEOS.PP-Centro de Estudos Organizacionais e Sociais do Politécnico do Porto, Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto, Instituto Politécnico do Porto, Rua Jaime Lopes Amorim, 4465-004 São Mamede de Infesta, Portugal
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Sandra Ramos

    (LEMA-Laboratório de Engenharia Matemática, Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto, Instituto Politécnico do Porto, Rua Dr. António Bernardino de Almeida, 4249-015 Porto, Portugal
    CEAUL-Centro de Estatística e Aplicações da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Filipa Vieira

    (Nors Group, S.A., 4149-010 Porto, Portugal
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Pedro Louro

    (Nors Group, S.A., 4149-010 Porto, Portugal
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

This study develops a risk-informed pricing framework for maintenance contracts in the trucking industry. We apply a comprehensive methodology combining statistical segmentation, cost analysis, and Value at Risk (VaR) modeling to a dataset of nearly 2000 contracts. Contracts were grouped by duration and truck usage, and distributions were fitted to estimate costs and compute risk premiums. Two pricing models are proposed: a traditional VaR-based approach and an adaptive model that incorporates distribution tail heaviness. Results show that the adaptive model resolves the counterintuitive decline in prices at higher risk levels and yields more stable, flexible premiums. These findings underscore the importance of tail-risk metrics in contract pricing to better capture cost uncertainty. The approach supports more accurate risk management and sustainable pricing strategies for maintenance services.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Pereira & Manuel Cruz & Jorge Santos & Cristina Lopes & Sandra Ramos & Filipa Vieira & Pedro Louro, 2026. "Optimizing Maintenance Contract Pricing Through Comprehensive Risk Assessment," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:14:y:2026:i:9:p:1453-:d:1928804
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/14/9/1453/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/14/9/1453/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:14:y:2026:i:9:p:1453-:d:1928804. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.