Understanding the Impact of Flight Restrictions on Epidemic Dynamics: A Meta-Agent-Based Approach Using the Global Airlines Network

In light of the current advances in computational epidemics and the need for improved epidemic governance strategies, we propose a novel meta-agent-based model (meta-ABM) constructed using the global airline complex network, using data from openflights.org, to establish a configurable framework for monitoring epidemic dynamics. By integrating our validated SICARQD complex epidemic model with global flights and airport information, we simulate the progression of an airborne epidemic, specifically reproducing the resurgence of COVID-19. In terms of originality, our meta-ABM considers each airport node (i.e., city) as an individual agent-based model assigned to its own independent SICARQD epidemic model. Agents within each airport node engage in probabilistic travel along established flight routes, mirroring real-world mobility patterns. This paper focuses primarily on investigating the effect of mobility restrictions by measuring the total number of cases, the peak infected ratio, and mortality caused by an epidemic outbreak. We analyze the impact of four key restriction policies imposed on the airline network, as follows: no restrictions, reducing flight frequencies, limiting flight distances, and a hybrid policy. Through simulations on scaled population systems of up to 1.36 million agents, our findings indicate that reducing the number of flights leads to a faster and earlier decrease in total infection cases, while restricting maximum flight distances results in a slower and much later decrease, effective only after canceling over 80% of flights. Notably, for practical travel restriction policies (e.g., 25–75% of flights canceled), epidemic control is significantly more effective when limiting flight frequency. This study shows the critical role of reducing global flight frequency as a public health policy to control epidemic spreading in our highly interconnected world.