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Mathematical Analysis and Optimal Control of a Transmission Model for Respiratory Syncytial Virus

Author

Listed:
  • Zakaria S. Al Ajlan

    (Department of Mathematics, College of Science, Qassim University, P.O. Box 6644, Buraydah 51452, Saudi Arabia)

  • Moustafa El-Shahed

    (Department of Mathematics, College of Science, Qassim University, P.O. Box 6644, Buraydah 51452, Saudi Arabia)

  • Yousef Alnafisah

    (Department of Mathematics, College of Science, Qassim University, P.O. Box 6644, Buraydah 51452, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

In this study, we develop a mathematical model to describe the transmission dynamics of the Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), incorporating the coexistence of two distinct strains. The global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria is analyzed. Bifurcation analysis reveals the occurrence of a forward bifurcation. To control the spread of the infection, Pontryagin’s maximum principle is applied within the framework of optimal control theory, considering intervention strategies such as isolation, treatment, and vaccination. A detailed evaluation of the effectiveness of these control strategies is conducted for a specific population based on a nonlinear optimal control model. Moreover, a cost-effectiveness analysis is performed to identify the most economically viable intervention. The findings indicate that, among the studied interventions, isolation is the most cost-effective strategy for reducing RSV prevalence. The model is numerically solved using the fourth-order Runge–Kutta method, coupled with the forward–backward sweep algorithm, to assess the impact of various control combinations on the transmission dynamics of RSV.

Suggested Citation

  • Zakaria S. Al Ajlan & Moustafa El-Shahed & Yousef Alnafisah, 2025. "Mathematical Analysis and Optimal Control of a Transmission Model for Respiratory Syncytial Virus," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-25, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:13:y:2025:i:18:p:2929-:d:1746161
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