VMD-SE-CEEMDAN-BO-CNNGRU: A Dual-Stage Mode Decomposition Hybrid Deep Learning Model for Microseismic Time Series Prediction

Coal mine disaster safety monitoring often employs microseismic technology for its high sensitivity and real-time capability. However, nonlinear, non-stationary, and multi-scale signals limit traditional time series models (e.g., ARMA, ARIMA). This paper proposes a hybrid deep learning model—VMD-SE-CEEMDAN-BO-CNNGRU—integrating variational mode decomposition, sample entropy, CEEMDAN, Bayesian optimization, and a CNN-GRU architecture. Microseismic data from the 08 working face in D mine (Weibei mining area) were used to predict daily maximum energy, average energy, and frequency. The model achieved high predictive performance with R 2 values of 0.93, 0.89, and 0.88, significantly outperforming baseline models lacking modal decomposition. Comparative experiments verified the superiority of the VMD-first, SE-reconstruction, and CEEMDAN-second decomposition strategy, yielding up to 13% greater accuracy than reverse-order schemes. The model maintained R 2 above 0.80 on another dataset from the 03 working face in W mine (Binchang mining area), demonstrating robust generalization. Although performance declined during fault disturbances, accuracy for average energy and frequency rebounded post-disturbance, indicating strong adaptability. Overall, the VSCB-CNNGRU model enhances both accuracy and stability in microseismic prediction, supporting dynamic risk assessment and early warning in coal mining.