Parameter Estimation and Forecasting Strategies for Cholera Dynamics: Insights from the 1991–1997 Peruvian Epidemic

Environmental transmission is a critical driver of cholera dynamics and a key factor influencing model-based inference and forecasting. This study focuses on stable parameter estimation and forecasting of cholera outbreaks using a compartmental SIRB model informed by three formulations of the environmental transmission rate: (1) a pre-parameterized periodic function, (2) a temperature-driven function, and (3) a flexible, data-driven time-dependent function. We apply these methods to the 1991–1997 cholera epidemic in Peru, estimating key parameters; these include the case reporting rate and human-to-human transmission rate. We assess practical identifiability via parametric bootstrapping and compare the performance of each transmission formulation in fitting epidemic data and forecasting short-term incidence. Our results demonstrate that while the data-driven approach achieves superior in-sample fit, the temperature-dependent model offers better forecasting performance due to its ability to incorporate seasonal trends. The study highlights trade-offs between model flexibility and parameter identifiability and provides a framework for evaluating cholera transmission models under data limitations. These insights can inform public health strategies for outbreak preparedness and response.