A Dynamic Threat Assessment Method for Multi-Target Unmanned Aerial Vehicles at Multiple Time Points Based on Fuzzy Multi-Attribute Decision Making and Fuse Intention

In response to the threat assessment challenge posed by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in air defense operations, this paper proposes a dynamic assessment model grounded in fuzzy multi-attribute decision making. First, a three-dimensional evaluation index system is established, encompassing capability, opportunity, and intention. Quantification functions for assessing the threat level of each attribute are then designed. To account for the temporal dynamics of the battlefield, an innovative fusion approach is developed, integrating inverse Poisson distribution time weights with subjective–objective comprehensive weighting, thereby establishing a dynamic variable weight fusion mechanism. Among these, the subjective weights are determined by integrating the intention probability matrix, effectively incorporating the intentions into the threat assessment process to reflect their dynamic changes and enhancing the overall evaluation accuracy. Leveraging the improved technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), the model achieves threat prioritization. Experimental results demonstrate that this method significantly enhances the reliability of threat assessments in uncertain and dynamic battlefield environments, offering valuable support for air defense command and control systems.