ML and Statistics-Driven Route Planning: Effective Solutions Without Maps

Background : Accurate route planning is a core challenge in logistics, particularly for small- and medium-sized enterprises that lack access to costly geospatial tools. This study explores whether usable distance matrices and routing outputs can be generated solely from geographic coordinates without relying on full map-based infrastructure. Methods : A dataset of over 5000 Hungarian postal locations was used to evaluate five models: Haversine-based scaling with circuity, linear regression, second- and third-degree polynomial regressions, and a trained artificial neural network. Models were tested on the full dataset, and three example routes representing short, medium, and long distances. Both statistical accuracy and route-level performance were assessed, including a practical optimization task. Results : Statistical models maintained internal consistency, but systematically overestimated longer distances. The ANN model provided significantly better accuracy across all scales and produced routes more consistent with map-based paths. A new evaluation method was introduced to directly compare routing outputs. Conclusions : Practical route planning can be achieved without GIS services. ML-based estimators offer a cost-effective alternative, with potential for further improvement using larger datasets, additional input features, and the integration of travel time prediction. This approach bridges the gap between simplified approximations and commercial routing systems.