Supply Chain Resilience and Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from Listed Manufacturing Firms

Background: Manufacturing productivity increasingly depends on reliable interorganizational flows, yet supply chain disruptions can interrupt materials, information, finance, and efficient use of productive inputs. Although supply chain resilience is widely treated as a continuity capability, its relationship with firm-level total factor productivity remains insufficiently established. Methods: This study uses 22,509 firm-year observations for Chinese A-share listed manufacturing firms from 2009 to 2024. An entropy-weighted resilience index is constructed from adaptability, resistance, recovery capacity, human capital, institutional support. Firm-level revenue productivity is estimated using the Olley Pakes method, and the analysis employs fixed effects regressions, robustness tests, a two-step selection correction test, mechanism regressions, heterogeneity analysis, and dimension-specific tests. Results: Supply chain resilience is positively associated with firm-level total factor productivity, and this association remains robust to alternative productivity and resilience measures, sample restrictions, industry-by-year fixed effects, and selection correction. Resilience is also associated with lower financing constraints and investment inefficiency. The association is stronger for firms with higher managerial incentives, high-technology industries, and competitive markets, while recovery capacity is negatively associated with contemporaneous productivity. Conclusions: Supply chain resilience supports efficient resource utilization, but its productivity value depends on capability composition, timing, and efficient resilience investment rather than maximizing resilience resources.