Operationalising Circular Futures: Scenario-Based Modelling of WEEE Supply Chains

Background: Circular economy transitions challenge conventional supply chain design and require decision-support tools that remain valid across multiple plausible futures. However, futures thinking in circular supply chain research is still used mainly as a narrative device, with limited guidance on how to translate scenario insights into model-ready assumptions. Methods: This paper proposes a four-step framework that converts qualitative circular-futures narratives into modelling factors and parameterised assumptions for waste electrical and electronic equipment supply chain simulation and optimisation. Four plausible circular futures, defined along economic-orientation and governance axes, are translated into operational and circularity factors and then into numerical parameters or structural modelling choices. The framework is illustrated through three applications: circular Supply Chain Resilience, electric-vehicle battery remanufacturing, and regional collection and treatment optimisation. Results: Circular strategies create value only when reverse flows, capacity and allocation choices are coherently aligned. Higher return rates improve resilience and material recovery but can destabilise upstream inventories when remanufacturing capacity and return shares are unbalanced. Different scenario priorities lead to distinct trade-offs across cost, emissions, resilience and circularity. Conclusions: This paper offers a replicable pathway for embedding plausible futures into quantitative circular supply chain models and supports more transparent decision-making under uncertainty.