An Enhanced Composite Green Logistics Performance Index for MENA: Methodology, Drivers and Hybrid Forecasting to 2030

Background: Amid rising trade, urbanization, and carbon emissions in MENA countries, sustainable logistics faces major constraints. This study develops an enhanced Green Logistics Performance Index (GLPI) using min-max normalization and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to integrate the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index (LPI) and Yale’s Environmental Performance Index (EPI). The study uses fixed-effects panel regression on data from 20 MENA countries (2018–2024), identifies key drivers, and applies ARIMA and LSTM models for 2030 projections. The prior ratio-based GLPI suffered from scale sensitivity and volatility; this refined version provides improved stability and predictive utility for Green Supply Chain Management (GSCM). Methods: Panel data from 20 MENA countries (2018–2024) were analyzed. The enhanced GLPI normalizes and weights LPI and EPI scores via PCA. Fixed-effects regression identifies drivers, while ARIMA and LSTM enable scenario-based forecasting (baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic). Results: Renewable energy share positively influences GLPI, while trade openness has a negative effect. Projections indicate the regional GLPI will reach about 0.65 by 2030, with Saudi Arabia potentially achieving 25% higher under optimistic conditions. Conclusions: The refined GLPI advances GSCM theory by operationalizing triple bottom line trade-offs through a robust, predictive metric. It bridges descriptive limitations in prior literature, enabling forward-looking insights into sustainable logistics in emerging economies, with potential applicability beyond MENA.