Beyond Average Effects: Performance-Dependent Logistics Challenges in Emerging Asian Transportation Trade

Background : Emerging Asian economies face a critical policy dilemma: macroeconomic and sustainability factors affect high-performing and struggling logistics exporters in fundamentally different ways. Methods : Analysing transportation trade data from China, South Korea, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia (2000–2023) using Panel Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-QARDL) methodology, this study investigates asymmetric relationships between macroeconomic indicators (real GDP, inflation, real effective exchange rate), sustainability variables (energy intensity, energy prices, CO 2 emissions), and logistics performance measured through transportation trade flows. Results : The results reveal striking performance-dependent heterogeneities that conventional approaches overlook. Economic growth provides 55% larger benefits to high performers (0.345) versus strugglers (0.222), confirming scale advantages. Energy constraints intensify for successful exporters, with energy intensity penalties 12% larger in upper quantiles. CO 2 emissions correlate positively with logistics performance, with effects doubling from lower (0.142) to upper quantiles (0.341), highlighting an intensifying sustainability trade-off. Error correction operates 39% faster during high-performance periods. Conclusions : These asymmetric relationships challenge one-size-fits-all policies, necessitating targeted energy efficiency interventions for high performers and growth-enabling support for struggling exporters.