Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dust Storm Activity Across Iran (2003–2022)

Dust storms are among the most significant environmental hazards affecting arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, yet their long-term behavior remains insufficiently characterized at the national scale. This study provides a comprehensive 20-year assessment (2003–2022) of dust-day variability across 50 synoptic stations using an integrated framework that combines descriptive statistics, trend analysis, extreme-event analysis based on the generalized extreme event GEV distribution, spatial clustering, and machine-learning-based forecasting. Results reveal strong spatial heterogeneity, with eastern and southeastern regions—particularly Zabol, Zahedan, Tabas, Naein, and Yazd—emerging as persistent dust hotspots due to arid climate, extensive desert surfaces, and dominant wind systems such as the Sistan 120-day wind. Trend analysis shows mixed behavior across the country, with significant increases in several central and western stations and notable decreases in southeastern stations, indicating that dust dynamics are driven by localized environmental and hydrological changes rather than uniform national forcing. Extreme value analysis demonstrates that high-impact dust years occur almost annually in eastern Iran, while extreme events remain rare in western and northern regions. K-means clustering identifies three coherent dust regimes—high-dust east/southeast, moderate-dust central region, and low-dust west/north—providing a practical basis for regional dust management. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) forecasts suggest stable to moderately variable dust activity over the next decade, although model performance declines in stations with high temporal variability, such as Naein. Overall, the findings highlight the spatial concentration and temporal complexity of dust activity in Iran and underscore the need for region-specific mitigation strategies, improved land and water management, and enhanced monitoring systems to reduce the environmental and health impacts of dust storms.