Exploring the Land Use–Fire Nexus in Central Angola

Land-use/cover change threatens the ecological integrity of the Miombo region of south-central Africa. In Angola, Miombo ecosystems are of high ecological and socio-economic importance, providing rural populations with woody and non-timber forest products. Fire plays an important role in regional agricultural and silvicultural land-use systems. This study contextualised Copernicus land-cover classes at the regional level to analyse LULC transition pathways and their association with fire occurrence in Central Angola. LULC change was assessed using a post-classification comparison approach combined with pixel-based trajectory analysis. Fire activity was analysed using MODIS-derived ignition points, burned-area data, and a hexagonal-grid aggregation approach. At the same time, spatial clustering was assessed using hot spot analysis based on the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. Differences in mean fire size among LULC transition classes were tested using the Kruskal–Wallis test followed by Dunn’s post hoc test. The results indicate a gradual reduction in forest cover and conversion to Cultivated Land, associated with the expansion of agricultural frontiers and urban areas. Fire activity was highest in areas affected by LULC conversion, with seasonal patterns varying notably among classes. Mean fire size differed by more than two orders of magnitude among transition types. Overall, fire activity was strongly associated with areas undergoing land-cover transition, highlighting the need to integrate fire management into sustainable land-use policies for long-term Miombo conservation.