Grid-Based Analysis of the Spatial Relationships and Driving Factors of Land-Use Carbon Emissions and Landscape Ecological Risk: A Case Study of the Hexi Corridor, China

Rapid urbanization and agricultural expansion in arid regions have profoundly altered carbon cycles and landscape stability. Focusing on the Hexi Corridor, China, this study integrates multi-source geospatial data (1990–2020) to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of land-use carbon emissions (LUCE) and landscape ecological risks (LER). By integrating carbon accounting, LER assessment, bivariate spatial autocorrelation, and the Optimal Parameter Geographic Detector (OPGD), we quantify the intricate relationship between carbon dynamics and landscape integrity. Results indicate a transformative pattern of anthropogenic expansion and natural contraction, with a 2315.49 km 2 net loss of unused land. Net carbon emissions surged 4.6-fold, while forest and grassland sinks exhibited a significant “lock-in effect” due to fragile ecological foundations. Simultaneously, LER followed an “inverted U-shaped” trajectory; the refined 5 × 5 km grid scale revealed a significant drop in high-risk areas from 44.65% to 10.96% following ecological restoration. Spatial analysis reveals a significant “spatial mismatch” between LUCE and LER, with oases manifesting “high carbon–low risk” clustering. Driver detection confirms a driving asymmetry. LUCE is dominated by anthropogenic factors (nighttime light, q > 0.90), whereas LER is profoundly constrained by natural backgrounds. Future governance must shift toward a collaborative system centered on source-based emission control and precise regional management to synergize low-carbon transition with landscape security.