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Twenty-Four Years of Land Cover Land Use Change in Gasabo, Rwanda, and Projection for 2032

Author

Listed:
  • Ngoga Iradukunda Fred

    (State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 818 South Beijing Road, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Lay Adventist of Kigali (UNILAK), Kigali P.O. Box 6392, Rwanda
    Locus Dynamics Limited (LD), Kigali P.O. Box 7189, Rwanda)

  • Alishir Kurban

    (State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 818 South Beijing Road, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
    Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory for Geo-Information, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Anwar Eziz

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Toqeer Ahmed

    (State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 818 South Beijing Road, Urumqi 830011, China
    CCRD, Department of Meteorology, COMSATS University Islamabad, Park Road, Tarlai Kalan, Islamabad 45550, Pakistan)

  • Egide Hakorimana

    (State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 818 South Beijing Road, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Lay Adventist of Kigali (UNILAK), Kigali P.O. Box 6392, Rwanda
    Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory for Geo-Information, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Justin Nsanzabaganwa

    (State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 818 South Beijing Road, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Lay Adventist of Kigali (UNILAK), Kigali P.O. Box 6392, Rwanda
    Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory for Geo-Information, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Isaac Nzayisenga

    (College of Geography and Remote Sensing, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

  • Schadrack Niyonsenga

    (State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 818 South Beijing Road, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Lay Adventist of Kigali (UNILAK), Kigali P.O. Box 6392, Rwanda)

  • Hossein Azadi

    (State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 818 South Beijing Road, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
    Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory for Geo-Information, Urumqi 830011, China)

Abstract

Urbanisation reshapes Land Cover and Land Use (LCLU) by driving deforestation, wetland loss, and the conversion of natural and agricultural areas into built environments. However, integrated analyses of LCLU change in response to climate variability in topographically complex, rapidly urbanising African cities remain limited. Therefore, this study examined 2000–2024 LCLU changes in hilly Gasabo District (Kigali, Rwanda) using 30 m Landsat imagery and a Random Trees classifier (92.7% accuracy, 70/30 train-test split), with 2032 projections via a population-driven hybrid trend model. Population estimates/projections 320,516 in 2002 to 967,512 in 2024, 1.41 million by 2032, were derived from Rwanda’s census data and exponential growth modelling (calibrated to 5.05% annual growth). Rapid population growth has driven a 539% expansion of Built-up Areas, accompanied by notable declines in cropland and Forest. Local climate trends (Meteo Rwanda stations) aligned with global datasets (ERA5-Land and CHIRPS): rainfall fluctuation and temperature rose, with strong correlations between population-driven Built-up Areas expansion. From 2024 to 2032, LCLU projections indicate that Built-up Areas will continue to expand by 29.5%. Cropland was forecast to decline to 15.9%, while Forest loss slowed to 5.7%. MLR analysis revealed strong correlations between population-driven expansion of Built-up Areas, cropland/forest loss, warming, and rainfall fluctuations in Gasabo. An ARDL model was applied to address multicollinearity among LCLU predictors, which limited the interpretation of individual coefficients, and confirmed the core MLR correlation trends, with statistically significant ( p < 0.05) coefficients. The results highlight the need for data-driven spatial planning in Gasabo (stricter zoning, high-rise buildings, targeted reforestation, climate-resilient green infrastructure) to mitigate population and urbanisation-driven environmental degradation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ngoga Iradukunda Fred & Alishir Kurban & Anwar Eziz & Toqeer Ahmed & Egide Hakorimana & Justin Nsanzabaganwa & Isaac Nzayisenga & Schadrack Niyonsenga & Hossein Azadi, 2026. "Twenty-Four Years of Land Cover Land Use Change in Gasabo, Rwanda, and Projection for 2032," Land, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-34, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:15:y:2026:i:4:p:655-:d:1921654
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