Land-Use-Mediated Pathways of Regional Carbon Storage Under Natural and Human Constraints: Evidence from Shaanxi Province, China

Under global climate change, analyzing carbon storage dynamics and their drivers is essential for understanding regional carbon sink capacity. Human activities and land-use change have substantially affected regional carbon storage. However, in China, most existing studies emphasize specific driving pathways, and integrated analyses of the combined effects of climate, natural, human, and landscape factors remain limited. This study aims at clarifying the integrated mechanisms by which multiple driving factors influence regional carbon storage. The InVEST model was used to analyze the carbon storage spatiotemporal changes. OPGD was then applied to evaluate the explanatory power of driving factors and their interactions, quantifying their contributions to carbon storage spatial patterns. Based on PLS-SEM, the direct and indirect effects of LULC, climate, natural, human, and landscape factors were quantified to elucidate the driving pathways of carbon storage. This study focuses on Shaanxi Province, which is a key ecological restoration region in the core area of the Loess Plateau. The main results are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, carbon storage in Shaanxi Province showed a continuous increasing trend, rising from 2.97 × 10 10 Mg C to 3.03 × 10 10 Mg C. (2) LULC was identified as the most important direct and predominantly negative driving factor of carbon storage. (3) Natural factors had a strong positive influence on carbon storage, among which slope and NDVI exhibited the highest explanatory power; in contrast, climate factors showed weaker but still positive effects. (4) Human activities affected carbon storage through both direct and indirect pathways associated with LULC, with positive effects driven by landscape factors and negative effects driven by natural factors, while climate factors exhibited mixed but weak effects. Overall, carbon storage dynamics in Shaanxi Province reflect a hierarchical and path-dependent process shaped by the combined effects of natural constraints, human activities, and policy guidance through LULC pathways, providing important evidence for systematically understanding the driving structure and pathways of regional carbon storage. These findings highlight the importance of aligning land-use policies with regional biophysical constraints to enhance carbon sequestration efficiency.