Dasymetric Mapping for People-Centered Wildfire Risk Assessment Case Study: Northern Portugal

With the increasing number of wildfire events, people living close to the wildland–urban interface (WUI) are more likely to be exposed to these events. To mitigate the hazards related to wildfires, it is of great importance to identify areas where human settlements are at a greater risk. Remote sensing-based techniques for mapping and quantifying the inhabitants possibly affected by these events are crucial to reduce the loss of life as well as reduce the negative impact that wildfires pose to the people living in WUIs, the surrounding areas, and the environment. Fine-scale mapping is a suitable auxiliary tool to indicate areas at greater risk. Hence, the dasymetric method was applied to generate a high-resolution map of the study area’s population, using products generated from Sentinel-2 imagery, a census, and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data. The findings of the proposed methodology show that around 59% of the population in the study area currently lives inside the WUI, while in 2025, most of the people affected by wildfires—77%—lived outside the WUI. This is expected, since wildfires vary in space and time, and they are seen as spatial–temporal processes. In addition, the results demonstrated that women are slightly more exposed to wildfires than other population groups. These results showed that the proposed methodology could not only help identify high-risk areas but also the number of people living in these areas due to the high-resolution dasymetric methodology. The proposed methodology described in this work shows that fine-scale mapping could enrich forest management in order to protect the populations susceptible to the negative impacts of wildfires, consequently protecting the environment.