Spatiotemporal Evolution of Vegetation Cover and Identification of Driving Factors Based on kNDVI and XGBoost-SHAP: A Study from Qinghai Province, China

Vegetation cover characteristics underpin the understanding of regional ecosystem status and guide sustainable development. While extensive research has documented long-term vegetation dynamics in Qinghai Province, critical gaps remain in identifying driving factors, quantifying their thresholds, and uncovering nonlinear relationships governing vegetation cover. In view of this, based on the MOD13Q1V6 dataset from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, this study constructed a kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI) dataset for Qinghai Province spanning the period 2001–2023. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal characteristics and future evolution trends of vegetation cover were revealed by employing methods including the Theil–Sen–Mann–Kendall (Theil–Sen–MK) trend test, Hurst exponent, and centroid migration model. At a grid scale of 5 km × 5 km, based on the combined model of Extreme Gradient Boosting and SHapley Additive exPlanations (XGBoost-SHAP), this study integrated 10 multi-source remote sensing variables related to natural conditions, socioeconomic factors, and geographical accessibility to reveal the nonlinear effects between driving factors and kNDVI and identify the key threshold inflection points. The results showed the following: (1) From 2001 to 2023, the kNDVI of Qinghai Province exhibited a fluctuating growth trend with an annual growth rate of 0.0016 per year, presenting a spatial pattern of being higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest. Specifically, the kNDVI of unused land achieved the highest growth rate (65.96%), which was significantly higher than that of other land use types. (2) The kNDVI in Qinghai Province was dominated by stable areas, accounting for 52.75%. Future trend analysis indicated that the region was primarily characterized by sustainable improvement zones (39.91%), while areas with uncertain future trends accounted for 39.70%. (3) The XGBoost-SHAP model revealed that the annual mean precipitation (AMP) (47.26%) and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) (20.40%) exerted substantial impacts on the kNDVI. Marginal effect curves identified distinct threshold inflection points for the major characteristic factors: AMP = 363.2 mm (95%CI: 361.2–365.2 mm), DEM = 4463.9 m (95%CI: 4446.0–4481.1 m), grazing intensity = 1.8 SU (Stocking Unit)·ha −1 (95%CI: 1.8–1.9 SU·ha −1 ), and slope = 2.8° (95%CI: 2.7–3.0°) and 19.0° (95%CI: 18.8–19.3°). The interaction combinations of AMP × DEM and DEM × distance to construction land exerted a strong positive effect on the kNDVI in the study area, which was conducive to enhancing vegetation cover. These findings verified the effectiveness of ecological projects implemented in Qinghai Province to a certain extent and provided data support for subsequent differentiated restoration and management.