Multiple Scenario-Based Impacts of Urban Expansion on Ecosystem Health in the Three Major Urban Agglomerations of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

The rapid urban expansion (UE) in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) in China has profoundly reshaped landscape patterns and ecosystem functions. Understanding the impact of UE on ecosystem health (EH) across different urban agglomerations is crucial for informing effective ecological governance and sustainability strategies. However, whether UE ultimately promotes or constrains EH across urban agglomerations under multi-scenario remains unclear. This study aims to address this gap by employing the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model and the Vigor–Organization–Resilience–Service framework to simulate UE and EH in three major urban agglomerations of the YREB, while also examining the mechanisms through which UE influences EH. The results revealed substantial UE under all scenarios, with the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations exhibiting the most pronounced growth. The EH index showed a downward trend, from 0.621 in 2010 to 0.613 in 2020. Bivariate spatial autocorrelation and spatial regression analyses revealed a significant negative correlation between UE and EH. The study identified land fragmentation and occupation due to UE as the primary factors contributing to the deterioration of EH. The findings indicated the necessity of strategic urban planning to mitigate potential ecosystem risks while promoting sustainable urban development. Furthermore, regional cooperation is critical for addressing transboundary ecological challenges and ensuring the long-term sustainability and resilience of the YREB ecosystem.