Spatial Inequality in Grassland Ecosystem Service Values and Fiscal Allocation Mismatch: A Meta-Regression Analysis of China

China possesses 400 million hectares of grasslands that provide regulating ecosystem services (ESs), including wind erosion control, water conservation, and carbon sequestration. The central government implemented the Grassland Ecological Protection Subsidy and Reward Policy (GERCP) in 2011, allocating 150 billion yuan (approximately $23 billion) through 2020, while national vegetation coverage increased from 51.0% in 2011 to 56.1% in 2020. Existing valuation studies emphasize total economic value but rarely quantify the concentration of ES values across space or their alignment with fiscal allocation. We compiled 734 grassland ES valuation observations from 186 studies published between 2000 and 2024, and estimated a multi-level mixed-effects meta-regression model for benefit transfer. We projected standardized county-level ES values, decomposed spatial inequality using the Gini coefficient and Theil index, and assessed the mismatch between value-informed allocation weights and observed GERCP transfers. Predicted values exhibit high concentration (Gini coefficient = 0.58), and between-zone differences explain 52% of total Theil inequality. The mismatch analysis identifies 94 high-value and low-compensation counties concentrated in southern Qinghai and northern Tibet, where per-hectare values are 180 to 240% above national medians, and compensation is 35 to 55% below the median. The results support value-informed targeting and redistribution of fiscal weights across regions, while payment levels require pricing benchmarks based on opportunity cost or conservation cost rather than total economic value. We propose calibrating compensation rates through a tiered schedule based on ESV quantiles or standardized ecosystem-service bundles, and implementing county-level differentiated payments with periodic updating tied to monitoring and evaluation. As a minimum viable step, we recommend piloting this scheme in counties with high ESV yet low current compensation, and integrating it into existing ecological compensation funding channels to reduce administrative frictions.