Landcover Change in Tigray’s Semi-Arid Highlands (1935–2020): Implications for Runoff and Channel Morphology

This study investigates how landcover change between 1935 and 2020 have shaped hydrological responses in the semi-arid highlands of Tigray, Ethiopia. Focusing on the Tsili catchment (27.5 km 2 ), it examines links between landcover change, drainage network evolution, and river channel width under conditions of population growth and climate variability. Landcover and drainage maps were derived from historical aerial photographs and satellite imagery for four time steps, and surface runoff was simulated using the SWAT model with uniform meteorological forcing to isolate landcover effects. Results show a 37.6% increase in cropland and substantial declines in shrubland (−29.3%) and forest (−10.1%). River channel width at the outlet widened from 7.5 to 10.5 m, while drainage density increased 1.5-fold. These physical changes aligned with modelled increases in surface runoff. Strong correlations were found between runoff, channel width, drainage density, and landcover types. The findings highlight that cropland expansion—at the expense of natural vegetated land—has intensified runoff and erosion risks. As climate change is expected to bring more intense rainfall to East Africa, this underscores the need for land management strategies that reduce hydrological connectivity and support sustainable agriculture in data-scarce regions.