Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change and Assessment of Ecosystem Services Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Shanghai, China

Climate change and rapid urbanization exert significant impacts on ecosystem services (ESs). The rational assessment and prediction of ESs are crucial for urban sustainable development. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal changes in land use in Shanghai from 2000 to 2020 and evaluates the key ESs, including water yield, soil retention, carbon storage, and habitat quality. Furthermore, integrated “climate change-land use” scenarios were constructed to systematically simulate the response characteristics of ESs under different climate change and development pathways. The results indicate that Shanghai’s land use from 2000 to 2020 was characterized by continuous expansion of built-up land and a significant reduction in cropland. Ecological land exhibited a low and fragmented coverage. By 2040, the ecological protection (EP) scenario could effectively curb the disorderly expansion of built-up land and maintain the stability of cropland and woodland, whereas the natural development (ND) scenario would exacerbate urban sprawl towards the east and further fragment ecological land. From 2000 to 2020, water yield in Shanghai showed an increasing trend, soil retention initially decreased followed by a gradual recovery, carbon sequestration experienced minor fluctuations, and habitat quality exhibited a continuous decline. By 2040, the EP scenarios will effectively maintain water yield and soil retention functions, steadily enhance carbon sequestration and habitat quality, and mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. In contrast, the ND scenarios show an unstable trend of initial increase followed by decrease. Spatially, the western and northern regions consistently remain high-value ESs zones under both scenarios. In 2040, Shanghai’s ESs will exhibit distinct administrative district disparities, characterized by “peripheral sensitivity and central stability”. This pattern underscores the necessity for implementing zone-specific regulation strategies in future urban planning.