IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v14y2025i9p1757-d1737699.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Revealing the Driving Factors of Land Disputes in China: New Insights from Machine Learning and Interpretable Methods

Author

Listed:
  • Jiayin Li

    (School of Marxism, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China
    Center of Agricultural Master’s Education, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China)

  • Bin Tong

    (College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Shukui Tan

    (College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Shangjun Zou

    (College of Tourism Management, Wuhan Business University, Wuhan 430056, China)

  • Junwen Zhang

    (College of Computer Science and Technology, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China)

Abstract

Land disputes pose a severe challenge for many developing countries worldwide. Understanding the driving factors of land disputes is crucial for social stability and sustainable development. China is one of the countries with the most severe situations of land disputes. This paper evaluates the land dispute intensity ( LDI ) across 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2022. Using the GBDT model and interpretability methods, this study reexamines the importance of multidimensional variables in LDI , while also uncovering their nonlinear and interaction effects. The results show that LDI across 30 provinces generally and continuously increased after 2014, with this trend being notably curbed after 2019. In terms of the driving factors of LDI , the number of specialized farmers’ cooperatives plays the most critical role (mean |SHAP value| = 0.4). Variables such as share of primary industry, coverage of land transfer service centers, and agricultural product price index also exert a stronger influence on LDI . Clear nonlinear effects on LDI are observed for the agricultural product price index, the number of specialized farmers’ cooperatives, and the mediation rate of non-litigation disputes. In terms of interaction effects, when the mediation rate of non-litigation disputes is lower than 0.9, increases in the number of specialized farmers’ cooperatives and coverage of land transfer service centers tend to enhance their influence on raising LDI . When the ratio of cultivated land transfer is below 0.3, an increase in coverage of land transfer service centers is associated with a stronger effect in reducing LDI . Overall, this study uses the GBDT model, Shapley additive explanation (SHAP), and partial dependency plots (PDPs) to identify the main driving factors of land disputes. This paper can provide valuable references for developing countries and regions worldwide in addressing land disputes and conflicts.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiayin Li & Bin Tong & Shukui Tan & Shangjun Zou & Junwen Zhang, 2025. "Revealing the Driving Factors of Land Disputes in China: New Insights from Machine Learning and Interpretable Methods," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-23, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:9:p:1757-:d:1737699
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/9/1757/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/9/1757/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:9:p:1757-:d:1737699. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.