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How Can We Achieve Carbon Neutrality During Urban Expansion? An Empirical Study from Qionglai City, China

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  • Xinmei Wang

    (College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Dinghua Ou

    (College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
    Key Laboratory of Investigation, Monitoring, Protection and Utilization of Cropland Resources, Ministry of Natural Resources, Chengdu 611130, China
    Observation and Research Station of Land Ecology and Land Use in Chengdu Plain, Ministry of Natural Resources, Chengdu 610045, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Chang Shu

    (College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China)

  • Yiliang Liu

    (College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China)

  • Zijia Yan

    (College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China)

  • Maocuo La

    (College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China)

  • Jianguo Xia

    (College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
    Key Laboratory of Investigation, Monitoring, Protection and Utilization of Cropland Resources, Ministry of Natural Resources, Chengdu 611130, China
    Observation and Research Station of Land Ecology and Land Use in Chengdu Plain, Ministry of Natural Resources, Chengdu 610045, China)

Abstract

While technologies like renewable energy and low-carbon transportation are known to mitigate carbon emissions from urban expansion, achieving carbon neutrality during this process remains a critical unresolved challenge. This issue is particularly pressing for developing countries striving to balance urbanization with carbon reduction. Taking Qionglai City as a case study, this study simulated the territorial spatial functional patterns (TSFPs) and carbon emission distribution for 2025 and 2030. Based on the key drivers of carbon emissions from urban expansion identified through the Geographical and Temporal Weighted Regression (GTWR) model, carbon-neutral pathways were designed for two scenarios: urban expansion scenarios under historical evolution patterns (Scenario I) and urban expansion scenarios optimized under carbon neutrality targets (Scenario II). The results indicate that (1) urban space is projected to expand from 6094.73 hm 2 in 2020 to 6249.77 hm 2 in 2025 and 6385.75 hm 2 in 2030; (2) total carbon emissions are forecasted to reach 1.25 × 10 6 t (metric tons) and 1.40 × 10 6 t in 2025 and 2030, respectively, exhibiting a spatial pattern of “high in the central-eastern regions, low in the west”; (3) GDP, Net Primary Productivity (NPP), and the number of fuel vehicles are the dominant drivers of carbon emissions from urban expansion; and (4) a four-pronged strategy, optimizing urban green space vegetation types, replacing fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles, controlling carbon emissions per GDP, and purchasing carbon credits, proves effective. Scenario II presents the optimal pathway: carbon neutrality in the expansion zone can be achieved by 2025 using the first three measures (e.g., optimizing 66.73 hm 2 of green space, replacing 800 fuel vehicles, and maintaining emissions at 0.21 t/10 4 CNY per GDP). By 2030, carbon neutrality can be achieved by implementing all four measures (e.g., optimizing 67.57 hm 2 of green space, replacing 1470 fuel vehicles, and achieving 0.15 t/10 4 CNY per GDP). This study provides a methodological basis for local governments to promote low-carbon urban development and offers practical insights for developing nations to reconcile urban expansion with carbon neutrality goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinmei Wang & Dinghua Ou & Chang Shu & Yiliang Liu & Zijia Yan & Maocuo La & Jianguo Xia, 2025. "How Can We Achieve Carbon Neutrality During Urban Expansion? An Empirical Study from Qionglai City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-35, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:8:p:1689-:d:1729249
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