The Impact of Climate and Land Use Change on Greek Centipede Biodiversity and Conservation

Centipedes (Chilopoda, Myriapoda) are crucial soil predators, yet their vulnerability to climate and land use change remains unexplored. We assess the impact of these drivers on Greek centipedes, identify current and future biodiversity hotspots, and evaluate the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 Network of protected areas for their conservation. We used an updated species occurrence database of Greek centipedes, derived from literature reviews and museum collections, and evaluated database completeness and geographic sampling biases. Species Distribution Models were employed to predict future distribution shifts under climate and land use change scenarios. Biodiversity hotspots were identified based on species richness (SR) and corrected-weighted endemism (CWE) metrics. We overlapped SR and CWE metrics against the Natura 2000 Network to assess its effectiveness. We found that sampling effort is highly heterogeneous across Greece. All species are projected to experience range contractions, particularly in the 2080s, with variation across scenarios and taxa. Current biodiversity hotspots are concentrated in the south Aegean islands and mainland mountain ranges, where areas of persistent high biodiversity are also projected to occur. The Natura 2000 Network currently covers 52% of SR and 44% of CWE hotspots, with projected decreases in SR coverage but increases in CWE coverage. Our work highlights the vulnerability of Greek centipedes to climate and land use change and reveals conservation shortfalls within protected areas. We identify priority areas for future field surveys, based on sampling bias and survey completeness assessments, and highlight the need for further research into mechanisms driving centipede responses to global change.