Land Use Transition Under a Tense Human–Land Relationship: A GWR Analysis of Conflicts Between Construction Land and Cropland

The rapid conversion of cropland into construction land in China poses an increasing threat to national food security. Using high-resolution (30 m) land-use data from 2000 to 2020, obtained from the Resource and Environment Science and Data Center, along with spatial analytical methods such as land-use transition metrics and centroid-based migration models, this study identifies the spatio-temporal evolution and spatial migration patterns of construction land expansion and cropland loss. Combined with multi-source data, including socioeconomic, environmental, and topographic variables, this study employs a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to explore the spatially heterogeneous driving mechanisms of two key indicators: the dependency of construction land expansion on cropland (DEP) and the contribution of cropland loss to construction land (CON). The results reveal that cropland has generally increased in the west and decreased in the east, reflecting expansion in underdeveloped areas and shrinkage in wealthier regions. In contrast, construction land expansion shows polycentric and stage-specific characteristics. Both DEP and CON remain high in major grain-producing areas like the North China Plain. Among the influencing factors, the non-grain production rate strongly inhibits DEP, while chemical fertilizer use significantly promotes CON. The urbanization rate shows a southwest-to-northeast increasing inhibitory effect on DEP and a northeast-to-southwest increasing promoting effect on CON. Local fiscal expenditure and land degradation demonstrate spatially heterogeneous effects. These differences highlight the conflict between low-cost land development priorities and cropland protection policies.