Spatiotemporal Variation in Carbon Storage in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration Under Multi-Scenario Simulations

Understanding changes in land use structures under multiple scenarios and their impacts on carbon storage is essential for revealing the evolution of regional development patterns and the underlying mechanisms of carbon cycle dynamics. This study adopted an integrated PLUS-InVEST modeling framework to analyze and predict changes in carbon storage in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA) under different scenarios for the years 2030 and 2060. The results showed the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the areas of forest land, water bodies, and construction land expanded, while the areas of cropland, grassland, and barren land decreased. Over this 20-year period, carbon storage showed a declining trend, decreasing from 2390.07 × 10 6 t in 2000 to 2372.19 × 10 6 t in 2020. (2) In both 2030 and 2060, cropland remained the primary land use type in the CPUA. Overall, carbon storage in the CPUA was higher in the southwestern area and decreased in the central and eastern parts, which was mainly related to the land use distribution pattern in the CPUA. (3) Carbon storage under the EP (ecological protection) and CP (cropland protection) scenarios was significantly higher than under the other two scenarios, and in 2030, carbon storage under the CP and EP scenarios exceeded that in 2020, while the UD (urban development) scenario had the lowest total carbon storage. This indicated that the expansion of construction land was detrimental to carbon storage enhancement, underscoring the importance of implementing ecological protection strategies. In summary, the results of this study quantitatively reflected the changes in carbon storage in the CPUA under different future development scenarios, providing a reference for formulating regional development strategies.