Assessing Urban Park Accessibility via Population Projections: Planning for Green Equity in Shanghai

Rapid urbanization and demographic shifts present significant challenges to spatial justice in green space provision. Traditional static assessments have become increasingly inadequate for guiding park planning, which now requires a dynamic, future-oriented analytical approach. To address this gap, this study incorporates population dynamics into urban park planning by developing a dynamic evaluation framework for park accessibility. Building on the Gaussian-based two-step floating catchment area (Ga2SFCA) method, we propose the human-population-projection-Ga2SFCA (HPP-Ga2SFCA) model, which integrates population forecasts to assess park service efficiency under future demographic pressures. Using neighborhood-committee-level census data from 2000 to 2020 and detailed park spatial data, we identified five types of population change and forecast demographic distributions for both short- and long-term scenarios. Our findings indicate population decline in the urban core and outer suburbs, with growth concentrated in the transitional inner-suburban zones. Long-term projections suggest that 66% of communities will experience population growth, whereas short-term forecasts indicate a decline in 52%. Static models overestimate park accessibility by approximately 40%. In contrast, our dynamic model reveals that accessibility is overestimated in 71% and underestimated in 7% of the city, highlighting a potential mismatch between future population demand and current park supply. This study offers a forward-looking planning framework that enhances the responsiveness of park systems to demographic change and supports the development of more equitable, adaptive green space strategies.