Rock Exposure-Driven Ecological Evolution: Multidimensional Spatiotemporal Analysis and Driving Path Quantification in Karst Strategic Areas of Southwest China

Southwest China, with typical karst, is one of the 36 biodiversity hotspots in the world, facing extreme ecological fragility due to thin soils, limited water retention, and high bedrock exposure. This fragility intensifies under climate change and human pressures, threatening regional sustainable development. Ecological strategic areas (ESAs) are critical safeguards for ecosystem resilience, yet their spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms remain poorly quantified. To address this gap, this study constructed a multidimensional ecological health assessment framework (pattern integrity–process efficiency–function diversity). By integrating Sen’s slope, a correlated Mann–Kendall (CMK) test, the Hurst index, and fuzzy C-means clustering, we systematically evaluated ecological health trends and identified ESA differentiation patterns for 2000–2024. Orthogonal partial least squares structural equation modeling (OPLS-SEM) quantified driving factor intensities and pathways. The results revealed that ecological health improved overall but exhibited significant spatial disparity: persistently high in southern Guangdong and most of Yunnan, and persistently low in the Sichuan Basin and eastern Hubei, with 41.47% of counties showing declining/slightly declining trends. ESAs were concentrated in the southwest/southeast, whereas high-EHI ESAs increased while low-EHI ESAs declined. Additionally, the natural environmental and human interference impacts decreased, while unique geographic factors (notably the rock exposure rate, with persistently significant negative effects) increased. This long-term, multidimensional assessment provides a scientific foundation for targeted conservation and sustainable development strategies in fragile karst ecosystems.