Regional Ecological Environment Quality Prediction Based on Multi-Model Fusion

Regional ecological environmental quality (EEQ) is a vital indicator for environmental management and supporting sustainable development. However, the absence of robust and accurate EEQ prediction models has hindered effective environmental strategies. This study proposes a novel approach to address this gap by integrating the ecological index (EI) model with several predictive models, including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), and cellular automata (CA), to forecast regional EEQ. Initially, the spatiotemporal evolution of the input data used to calculate the EI score was analyzed. Subsequently, tailored prediction models were developed for each dataset. These models were sequentially trained and validated, and their outputs were integrated into the EI model to enhance the accuracy and coherence of the final EEQ predictions. The novelty of this methodology lies not only in integrating existing predictive models but also in employing an innovative fusion technique that significantly improves prediction accuracy. Despite data quality issues in the case study dataset led to higher prediction errors in certain regions, the overall results exhibit a high degree of accuracy. A comparison of long-term EI predictions with EI assessment results reveals that the R 2 value for the EI score exceeds 0.96, and the kappa value surpasses 0.76 for the EI level, underscoring the robust performance of the integrated model in forecasting regional EEQ. This approach offers valuable insights into exploring regional EEQ trends and future challenges.