Thermal Infrared UAV Applications for Spatially Explicit Wildlife Occupancy Modeling

Assessing the impact of community-based conservation programs on wildlife biodiversity remains a significant challenge. This pilot study was designed to develop and demonstrate a scalable, spatially explicit workflow using thermal infrared (TIR) imagery and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for non-invasive biodiversity monitoring. Conducted in a 2-hectare grassland area in Chitwan, Nepal, the study applied TIR-based grid sampling and multi-species occupancy models with thin-plate splines to evaluate how species detection and richness might vary between (1) morning and evening UAV flights, and (2) the Chitwan National Park and Kumroj Community Forest. While the small sample area inherently limits ecological inference, the aim was to test and demonstrate data collection and modeling protocols that could be scaled to larger landscapes with sufficient replication, and not to produce generalizable ecological findings from a small dataset. The pilot study results revealed higher species detection during morning flights, which allowed us to refine our data collection. Additionally, models accounting for spatial autocorrelation using thin plate splines suggested that community-based conservation programs effectively balanced ecosystem service extraction with biodiversity conservation, maintaining richness levels comparable to the national park. Models without splines indicated significantly higher species richness within the national park. This study demonstrates the potential for spatially explicit methods for monitoring grassland mammals using TIR UAV as indicators of anthropogenic impacts and conservation effectiveness. Further data collection over larger spatial and temporal scales is essential to capture the occupancy more generally for species with larger home ranges, as well as any effects of rainfall, flooding, and seasonal variability on biodiversity in alluvial grasslands.