Projected Soil Erosion Risk Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Case Study with RUSLE Modelling in Sakarya, Türkiye

Türkiye is one of the most vulnerable countries in the Mediterranean Basin; the assessment of changes in soil erosion driven by both climate variability and anthropogenic factors is of great importance. This study aims to examine the current state and potential future changes in soil erosion in Sakarya Province, situated in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Basin, by employing the GIS-based RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) model. Considering the impact of climate change on precipitation regimes, rainfall projections for the 2061–2080 period under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario were evaluated. The analysis revealed that the current average annual soil loss in Sakarya is 2.9 t/ha, with the highest erosion risk occurring on steep slopes, bare surfaces, and agricultural lands. By 2080, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the annual average soil loss is projected to be 2.6 t/ha, while slight and very slight erosion levels are expected to increase. These results provide important insights for identifying current risk areas and critical zones for conservation, as well as for projecting future erosion scenarios, thus contributing to sustainable land management policies at the watershed scale. The study suggests that strategies to reduce erosion risk in Sakarya should particularly focus on land management practices such as slope stabilization, afforestation, land cover improvement, and terracing. These approaches are crucial for mitigating land degradation (SDG 15.3) and ensuring sustainable agricultural production (SDG 2.4) within the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals.