Study on Carbon Storage Evolution and Scenario Response Under Multi-Pathway Drivers in High-Groundwater-Level Coal Resource-Based Cities: A Case Study of Three Cities in Shandong, China

Land use/land cover (LULC) change is a key driving factor influencing the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage. In high-groundwater-level coal resource-based cities (HGCRBCs), the interplay of urban expansion, mining disturbances, and land reclamation makes the carbon storage evolution process more complex. This study takes Jining, Zaozhuang, and Heze cities in Shandong Province as the research area and constructs a coupled analytical framework of “mining–reclamation–carbon storage” by integrating the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS), Probability Integral Method (PIM), InVEST, and Grey Multi-Objective Programming (GMOP) models. It systematically evaluates the spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon storage changes from 2000 to 2020 and simulates the carbon storage responses under different development scenarios in 2030. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the total carbon storage in the region decreased by 31.53 Tg, with cropland conversion to construction land and water bodies being the primary carbon loss pathways, contributing up to 89.86% of the total carbon loss. (2) Among the 16 major LULC transition paths identified, single-process drivers dominated carbon storage changes. Specifically, urban expansion and mining activities individually accounted for nearly 70% and 8.65% of the carbon loss, respectively. Although the reclamation path contributed to a recovery of 1.72 Tg of carbon storage, it could not fully offset the loss caused by mining. (3) Future scenario simulations indicate that the ecological conservation scenario yields the highest carbon storage, while the economic development scenario results in the lowest. Mining activities generally lead to approximately 3.5 Tg of carbon loss, while post-mining reclamation can restore about 72% of the loss.