Perception over Possession: How Farmers’ Subjective Tenure Security and Forest Certification Drive Sustainable Bamboo Management

Against the backdrop of China’s large-scale collective forest tenure reform, examining the actual effects of land policies at the household level is crucial for advancing sustainable forestry. This study aims to comprehensively analyze the impacts of tenure formalization (forest tenure certificates) and market-based incentives (bamboo forest certification) on household production inputs and harvesting behavior by disentangling the objective implementation of policies from households’ subjective perceptions. Based on survey data from 1090 households in Fujian Province, China, and employing double-hurdle and Tobit models, this study reveals a central finding: households’ management decisions are driven more strongly by their subjective perceptions than by objectively held policy instruments. Specifically, perceived tenure security serves as a key incentive for increasing production inputs and adopting long-term harvesting plans, whereas the mere possession of forest tenure certificates exhibits limited direct effects. Similarly, households’ positive expectations about the market value enhancement from bamboo forest certification significantly promote investments and sustainable harvesting practices—an effect substantially greater than that of mere participation in certification. Consequently, this study argues that the successful implementation of land governance policies depends not only on the rollout of instruments but, more critically, on fostering households’ trust and positive perceptions of policies’ long-term value.