Credit to Economic Sectors and the Ability to Repay Long-Run External Loans: New Evidence from Jordan

Emerging economies face crucial challenges around fiscal stability, particularly servicing foreign debt and securing long-term financing arrangements. In this context, we investigated the relationship between the share of banking facilities allocated to various economic sectors, the growth of public revenues and the proportion of long-term loans relative to total foreign debt in Jordan. Using data from 2008: Q1 to 2022: Q4 and employing two regression models along with the Vector Error Correction model, key findings reveal that the share of banking facilities allocated to total financing positively impacts public income and reduces long-term liabilities (LRL). Additionally, the positive effect of direct credit from financial institutions on real GDP and public income is associated with a negative impact on LRL. Conversely, direct credit from financial corporations negatively influences real GDP and public income while positively affecting LRL. Direct credit from public sector financing exhibits an inverse relationship with economic growth and public income, leading to a positive association with LRL. The statistically significant error correction coefficients indicate that short-run deviations are corrected toward the long-run equilibrium, with the first model showing a faster but oscillatory adjustment process and the second model exhibiting a slower and more gradual return to equilibrium. These findings suggest that developing countries like Jordan must prioritize banking facilitation for sectors such as industry, tourism, and agriculture to facilitate debt repayment.