The Conduit, Constraint, and Containment: A Framework for Analyzing Global Stablecoin Risk Transmission and China’s Regulatory Response

The rapid expansion of global stablecoins is generating new challenges for monetary sovereignty, financial stability, and cross-border regulatory governance. This paper develops an integrated analytical framework of “risk transmission–institutional constraints–compliance response–dynamic monitoring” to examine how stablecoin-related risks may be transmitted into China’s financial system. Drawing on financial risk theory, institutional analysis, and comparative regulatory perspectives, the study identifies three major channels of risk transmission: monetary sovereignty erosion, financial stability shocks, and regulatory arbitrage accompanied by legal and data-governance challenges. It argues that the actual impact of these risks is shaped by China’s specific institutional and technological conditions, including cross-border jurisdictional frictions, technical standard barriers, coordination difficulties under “one country, two systems”, and limitations in regulatory technology capacity. On this basis, the paper proposes a multi-layered compliance response system centered on risk-based penetrative supervision, strict corporate compliance boundaries, and the digital renminbi (e-CNY) as core infrastructure, while emphasizing the need for stronger international regulatory coordination. It further introduces a dynamic monitoring perspective to evaluate regulatory effectiveness, risk suppression, and the substitution effect of the e-CNY ecosystem. The paper contributes a structured and policy-oriented framework for understanding and containing external stablecoin risks in China’s institutional context.