The Influence of Investor Sentiment on the South African Property Market: A Comparative Assessment of JSE Indices

Investor sentiment has increasingly been recognized as a behavioural factor influencing asset prices beyond traditional rational asset pricing models, yet evidence from South Africa’s property remains limited. This study investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between investor sentiment and FTSE/JSE-listed property indices, to determine the influence of sentiment on property index pricing within the South African context. Using monthly data for selected JSE/FTSE property indices, a composite investor sentiment index was constructed through a principal component analysis (PCA) of multiple market-based sentiment proxies. Consequently, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was estimated to examine both the long-run and short-run relationships, integrated with the VEC Granger causality tests to determine the direction of influence between variables. The findings report a novel relationship between investor sentiment and the FTSE/JSE property indices, as they provide new insights at the disaggregated level, which is overlooked in the literature. In the short run, the findings suggest that market psychology drives short-term property price adjustments. Moreover, in the long run, the relationship remains significant, indicating that this effect persists, underscoring the enduring influence of sentiment on market valuation. Additionally, the Granger causality results indicate uni-directional relationships, where investor sentiment drives listed property pricing and macroeconomic variables, reinforcing its predictive role. The study concludes that investor sentiment is a key determinant of South Africa’s listed property market, consistent with the rationale of behavioural finance theory, and underscores that investment decisions within this market are substantially influenced by investor psychology, contributing to property market volatility.