IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijfss/v13y2025i3p128-d1696759.html

Harnessing the Power of Past Triumphs: Unleashing the MAX Effect’s Potential in Emerging Market Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Ştefan Cristian Gherghina

    (Department of Finance, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 6 Piata Romana, 010374 Bucharest, Romania)

  • Durmuş Yıldırım

    (Department of Business Administration, Ondokuz Mayıs University, Samsun 55270, Türkiye)

  • Mesut Dogan

    (Department of Finance, Banking and Insurance, Bilecik Seyh Edebali University, Bilecik 11300, Türkiye)

Abstract

This study investigates the presence of the MAX effect, as defined by Bali et al. (2011), in the stock market of Borsa Istanbul, aiming to validate and extend previous findings in international markets. A comprehensive analysis of 439 firms from December 2013 to November 2023 reveals that stocks with low performance in previous periods tend to show strong performance in subsequent periods. This finding indicates that the MAX effect is also applicable to Borsa Istanbul and suggests that this effect can significantly influence stock price movements in the market. Additionally, this study highlights that past maximum returns, especially those accumulated over long periods, have a distinct impact on future returns. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the MAX effect’s presence in and impact on financial markets and offer valuable guidance for market participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Ştefan Cristian Gherghina & Durmuş Yıldırım & Mesut Dogan, 2025. "Harnessing the Power of Past Triumphs: Unleashing the MAX Effect’s Potential in Emerging Market Returns," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-23, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:13:y:2025:i:3:p:128-:d:1696759
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/13/3/128/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/13/3/128/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gao, Huasheng & Shi, Donghui & Zhao, Bin, 2021. "Does good luck make people overconfident? Evidence from a natural experiment in the stock market," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
    3. Brian Boyer & Todd Mitton & Keith Vorkink, 2010. "Expected Idiosyncratic Skewness," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 169-202, January.
    4. Shen, Junyan & Yu, Jianfeng & Zhao, Shen, 2017. "Investor sentiment and economic forces," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-21.
    5. Fong, Wai Mun & Toh, Benjamin, 2014. "Investor sentiment and the MAX effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 190-201.
    6. Liu, Chang & Sun, Peng & Zhu, Dongming, 2023. "Lottery preference, short-sale constraint, and the salience effect: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Gilbert V. Nartea & Ji Wu & Hong Tao Liu, 2014. "Extreme returns in emerging stock markets: evidence of a MAX effect in South Korea," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 425-435, March.
    8. Eraker, Bjørn & Ready, Mark, 2015. "Do investors overpay for stocks with lottery-like payoffs? An examination of the returns of OTC stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 486-504.
    9. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    10. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    11. Aboulamer, Anas & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2016. "Are idiosyncratic volatility and MAX priced in the Canadian market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 20-36.
    12. Surya Chelikani & Osman Kilic & Xuewu (Wesley) Wang, 2022. "Past Stock Returns and the MAX Effect," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 338-352, July.
    13. Todd Mitton & Keith Vorkink, 2007. "Equilibrium Underdiversification and the Preference for Skewness," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1255-1288.
    14. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Verstegen, Kurt, 2013. "Are extreme returns priced in the stock market? European evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3401-3411.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, March.
    2. Zhao, Xiaojuan & Wang, Ye & Liu, Weiyi, 2024. "Someone like you: Lottery-like preference and the cross-section of expected returns in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Gao, Ya & Bradrania, Reza, 2024. "Property crime and lottery-related anomalies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Ali, Syed Riaz Mahmood & Hasan, Mohammad Nurul & Östermark, Ralf, 2020. "Are idiosyncratic risk and extreme positive return priced in the Indian equity market?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 530-545.
    5. Muhammad Kashif & Thomas Leirvik, 2022. "The MAX Effect in an Oil Exporting Country: The Case of Norway," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, March.
    6. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Cao, Xu & Lazrak, Skander & Wang, Yan, 2019. "Do idiosyncratic skewness and kurtosis really matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    7. Hsin, Chin-Wen & Peng, Shu-Cing, 2023. "Investor propensity to speculate and price delay in emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    8. Wan, Xiaoyuan, 2018. "Is the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly driven by the MAX or MIN effect? Evidence from the Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-15.
    9. Melisa Ozdamar & Levent Akdeniz & Ahmet Sensoy, 2021. "Lottery-like preferences and the MAX effect in the cryptocurrency market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    10. Nartea, Gilbert V. & Kong, Dongmin & Wu, Ji, 2017. "Do extreme returns matter in emerging markets? Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 189-197.
    11. Lu, Jing & Ran, Rong & Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2025. "Asset pricing when social preference meets lottery preference: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA).
    12. Andreas Oehler & Julian Schneider, 2022. "Gambling with lottery stocks?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(6), pages 477-503, October.
    13. Hai, Hoang Van & Park, Jong Won & Tsai, Ping-Chen & Eom, Cheoljun, 2020. "Lottery mindset, mispricing and idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. Bradrania, Reza & Gao, Ya, 2024. "Lottery demand, weather and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    15. Gao, Ya & Han, Xing & Xiong, Xiong, 2021. "Loss from the chasing of MAX stocks: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    16. Zhong, Angel & Gray, Philip, 2016. "The MAX effect: An exploration of risk and mispricing explanations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 76-90.
    17. Byun, Suk-Joon & Kim, Da-Hea, 2016. "Gambling preference and individual equity option returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 155-174.
    18. Baars, Maren & Mohrschladt, Hannes, 2021. "An alternative behavioral explanation for the MAX effect," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 868-886.
    19. Mei-Chen Lin, 2020. "When analysts encounter lottery-like stocks: lottery-like stocks and analyst stock recommendations," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 327-353, July.
    20. Ali, Syed Riaz Mahmood & Rahman, M Arifur & Hasan, Mohammad Nurul & Östermark, Ralf, 2020. "Positive IVOL-MAX effect: A study on the Singapore Stock Market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:13:y:2025:i:3:p:128-:d:1696759. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.