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Predicting Ovarian-Cancer Burden in Catalonia by 2030: An Age–Period–Cohort Modelling

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  • Paula Peremiquel-Trillas

    (Cancer Epidemiology Research Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Faculty of Medicine, University of Barcelona, C/Casanova 143, 08036 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Jon Frias-Gomez

    (Cancer Epidemiology Research Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Faculty of Medicine, University of Barcelona, C/Casanova 143, 08036 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Laia Alemany

    (Cancer Epidemiology Research Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health-CIBERESP, Carlos III Institute of Health, Av. De Monforte de Lemos 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain)

  • Alberto Ameijide

    (Tarragona Cancer Registry, Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Service, Sant Joan de Reus University Hospital, Av. Dr. Josep Laporte 2, 43204 Reus, Spain
    Pere Virgili Health Research Institute-IISPV, Rovira i Virgili University, Av. de la Universitat, 1, 2ª pl. Reus, 43204 Tarragona, Spain)

  • Mireia Vilardell

    (Independent Researcher, 08028 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Rafael Marcos-Gragera

    (Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health-CIBERESP, Carlos III Institute of Health, Av. De Monforte de Lemos 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
    Epidemiology Unit and Girona Cancer Registry, Oncology Coordination Plan, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Department of Health, Government of Catalonia, Av. França-Sant Ponç s/n, 17007 Girona, Spain
    Descriptive Epidemiology, Genetics and Cancer Prevention Research Group, Girona Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBGI. C/Dr. Castany s/n. Edifici M2, Parc Hospitalari Martí i Julià, 17190 Salt, Spain
    Medical Sciences Department, Faculty of Medicine, University of Girona, C/Emili Grahit 77, 17071 Girona, Spain)

  • Sònia Paytubi

    (Cancer Epidemiology Research Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Jordi Ponce

    (Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Bellvitge University Hospital, Feixa Llarga s/n, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08907 Barcelona, Spain)

  • José Manuel Martínez

    (Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Bellvitge University Hospital, Feixa Llarga s/n, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08907 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Marta Pineda

    (Hereditary Cancer Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Joan Brunet

    (Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Hereditary Cancer Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Consortium for Biomedical Research in Cancer-CIBERONC, Carlos III Institute of Health, Av. De Monforte de Lemos 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
    Medical Oncology Department, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Doctor Josep Trueta Girona University Hospital, Av. França-Sant Ponç s/n, 17007 Girona, Spain)

  • Xavier Matías-Guiu

    (Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Consortium for Biomedical Research in Cancer-CIBERONC, Carlos III Institute of Health, Av. De Monforte de Lemos 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
    Department of Pathology, Bellvitge University Hospital, Feixa Llarga s/n, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08907 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Marià Carulla

    (Tarragona Cancer Registry, Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Service, Sant Joan de Reus University Hospital, Av. Dr. Josep Laporte 2, 43204 Reus, Spain
    Pere Virgili Health Research Institute-IISPV, Rovira i Virgili University, Av. de la Universitat, 1, 2ª pl. Reus, 43204 Tarragona, Spain)

  • Jaume Galceran

    (Tarragona Cancer Registry, Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Service, Sant Joan de Reus University Hospital, Av. Dr. Josep Laporte 2, 43204 Reus, Spain
    Pere Virgili Health Research Institute-IISPV, Rovira i Virgili University, Av. de la Universitat, 1, 2ª pl. Reus, 43204 Tarragona, Spain)

  • Ángel Izquierdo

    (Epidemiology Unit and Girona Cancer Registry, Oncology Coordination Plan, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Department of Health, Government of Catalonia, Av. França-Sant Ponç s/n, 17007 Girona, Spain
    Hereditary Cancer Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Medical Oncology Department, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Doctor Josep Trueta Girona University Hospital, Av. França-Sant Ponç s/n, 17007 Girona, Spain
    Statistical Section, Genetics, Microbiology and Statistics Department, Faculty of Biology, University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 643, 08028 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Josep M. Borràs

    (Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Oncology Coordination Plan, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Department of Health, Government of Catalonia, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Laura Costas

    (Cancer Epidemiology Research Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health-CIBERESP, Carlos III Institute of Health, Av. De Monforte de Lemos 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Ramon Clèries

    (Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Oncology Coordination Plan, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Department of Health, Government of Catalonia, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Clinical Sciences Department, Faculty of Medicine, University of Barcelona, Feixa Llarga s/n, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08907 Barcelona, Spain
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

Ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynaecological cancer in very-high-human-development-index regions. Ovarian cancer incidence and mortality rates are estimated to globally rise by 2035, although incidence and mortality rates depend on the region and prevalence of the associated risk factors. The aim of this study is to assess changes in incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in Catalonia by 2030. Bayesian autoregressive age–period–cohort models were used to predict the burden of OC incidence and mortality rates for the 2015–2030 period. Incidence and mortality rates of ovarian cancer are expected to decline in Catalonia by 2030 in women ≥ 45 years of age. A decrease in ovarian-cancer risk was observed with increasing year of birth, with a rebound in women born in the 1980s. A decrease in mortality was observed for the period of diagnosis and period of death. Nevertheless, ovarian-cancer mortality remains higher among older women compared to other age groups. Our study summarizes the most plausible scenario for ovarian-cancer changes in terms of incidence and mortality in Catalonia by 2030, which may be of interest from a public health perspective for policy implementation.

Suggested Citation

  • Paula Peremiquel-Trillas & Jon Frias-Gomez & Laia Alemany & Alberto Ameijide & Mireia Vilardell & Rafael Marcos-Gragera & Sònia Paytubi & Jordi Ponce & José Manuel Martínez & Marta Pineda & Joan Brune, 2022. "Predicting Ovarian-Cancer Burden in Catalonia by 2030: An Age–Period–Cohort Modelling," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-8, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:3:p:1404-:d:735437
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Raimi Zamriah Hasan & Beng Kwang Ng & Su Ee Phon & Abdul Kadir Abdul Karim & Pei Shan Lim & Abdul Ghani Nur Azurah, 2022. "Quality of Life of Gynaeoncology Patients and Family Caregivers," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-11, May.
    2. Ramon Clèries & Alberto Ameijide & Maria Buxó & Mireia Vilardell & José Miguel Martínez & Rebeca Font & Rafael Marcos-Gragera & Montse Puigdemont & Gemma Viñas & Marià Carulla & Josep Alfons Espinàs &, 2022. "Ten-Year Probabilities of Death Due to Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease among Breast Cancer Patients Diagnosed in North-Eastern Spain," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, December.

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