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Mortality Risk Stratification in Emergency Surgery for Obstructive Colon Cancer—External Validation of International Scores, American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC), and the Dedicated Score of French Surgical Association (AFC/OCC Score)

Author

Listed:
  • Raul Mihailov

    (Clinic Surgery Department, Dunarea de Jos University, 800216 Galati, Romania)

  • Dorel Firescu

    (Clinic Surgery Department, Dunarea de Jos University, 800216 Galati, Romania)

  • Georgiana Bianca Constantin

    (Morphological and Functional Sciences Department, Dunarea de Jos University, 800216 Galati, Romania)

  • Oana Mariana Mihailov

    (Clinic Medical Department, Dunarea de Jos University, 800216 Galati, Romania)

  • Petre Hoara

    (General Surgery Department, Carol Davila University, 050474 Bucharest, Romania)

  • Rodica Birla

    (General Surgery Department, Carol Davila University, 050474 Bucharest, Romania)

  • Traian Patrascu

    (General Surgery Department, Carol Davila University, 050474 Bucharest, Romania)

  • Eugenia Panaitescu

    (Medical Informatics and Biostatistics Department, Carol Davila University, 050474 Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

Background: The increased rates of postoperative mortality after emergency surgery for obstructive colon cancer (OCC) require the use of risk-stratification scores. The study purpose is to external validate the surgical risk calculator (SRC) and the AFC/OCC score and to create a score for risk stratification. Patients and methods: Overall, 435 patients with emergency surgery for OCC were included in this retrospective study. We used statistical methods suitable for the aimed purpose. Results: Postoperative mortality was 11.72%. SRC performance: strong discrimination (AUC = 0.864) and excellent calibration (11.80% predicted versus 11.72% observed); AFC/OCC score performance: adequate discrimination (AUC = 0.787) and underestimated mortality (6.93% predicted versus 11.72% observed). We identified nine predictors of postoperative mortality: age > 70 years, CHF, ECOG > 2, sepsis, obesity or cachexia, creatinine (aN) or platelets (aN), and proximal tumors (AUC = 0.947). Based on the score, we obtained four risk groups of mortality rate: low risk (0.7%)—0–2 factors, medium risk (12.5%)—3 factors, high risk (40.0%)—4 factors, very high risk (84.4%)—5–6 factors. Conclusions: The two scores were externally validated. The easy identification of predictors and its performance recommend the mortality score of the Clinic County Emergency Hospital of Galați/OCC for clinical use.

Suggested Citation

  • Raul Mihailov & Dorel Firescu & Georgiana Bianca Constantin & Oana Mariana Mihailov & Petre Hoara & Rodica Birla & Traian Patrascu & Eugenia Panaitescu, 2022. "Mortality Risk Stratification in Emergency Surgery for Obstructive Colon Cancer—External Validation of International Scores, American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program ," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-22, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:20:p:13513-:d:946665
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