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Temporal and Spatial Evolution of the African Swine Fever Epidemic in Vietnam

Author

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  • Qihui Shao

    (Key Laboratory of Monitoring and Estimate for Environment and Disaster of Hubei Province, Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Rendong Li

    (Key Laboratory of Monitoring and Estimate for Environment and Disaster of Hubei Province, Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China)

  • Yifei Han

    (Key Laboratory of Monitoring and Estimate for Environment and Disaster of Hubei Province, Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Dongfeng Han

    (Key Laboratory of Monitoring and Estimate for Environment and Disaster of Hubei Province, Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Juan Qiu

    (Key Laboratory of Monitoring and Estimate for Environment and Disaster of Hubei Province, Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China)

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is a severe infectious disease affecting domestic and wild suids. Spatiotemporal dynamics analysis of the ASF is crucial to understanding its transmission. The ASF broke out in Vietnam in February 2019. The research on the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ASF in Vietnam is lacking. Spatiotemporal statistical methods, including direction analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and spatiotemporal scan statistics were used to reveal the dynamics of the spatial diffusion direction and spatiotemporal aggregation characteristics of ASF in Vietnam. According to the cessation of the epidemic, it was divided into three phases: February to August 2019 (phase 1), April to December 2020 (phase 2), and January 2021 to March 2022 (phase 3). The ASF showed a significant spread trend from north to south in phase 1. The occurrence rate of the ASF aggregated spatially in phase 1 and became random in phases 2 and 3. The high−high ASF clusters (the province was a high cluster and both it and its neighbors had a high ASF occurrence rate) were concentrated in the north in phases 1 and 2. Four spatiotemporal high-risk ASF clusters were identified with a mean radius of 121.88 km. In general, there were significant concentrated outbreak areas and directional spread in the early stage and small-scale, high-frequency, and randomly scattered outbreaks in the later stage. The findings could contribute to a deeper understanding of the spatiotemporal spread of the ASF in Vietnam.

Suggested Citation

  • Qihui Shao & Rendong Li & Yifei Han & Dongfeng Han & Juan Qiu, 2022. "Temporal and Spatial Evolution of the African Swine Fever Epidemic in Vietnam," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-13, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:13:p:8001-:d:852011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juan Qiu & Rendong Li & Ying Xiao & Jing Xia & Hong Zhu & Yingnan Niu & Duan Huang & Qihui Shao & Ying Cui & Yong Wang, 2019. "Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity in Human Schistosoma japonicum Infection at Village Level in Hubei Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-11, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xin Pei & Mingtao Li & Jianghong Hu & Juan Zhang & Zhen Jin, 2022. "Analysis of Spatiotemporal Transmission Characteristics of African Swine Fever (ASF) in Mainland China," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(24), pages 1-18, December.

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