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SARS-CoV-2 Risk Quantification Model and Validation Based on Large-Scale Dutch Test Events

Author

Listed:
  • Bas Kolen

    (Department Values, Technology and Innovation, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands
    HKV Lijn in Water, 8232 JN Lelystad, The Netherlands
    Current address: HKV, Botter 11-29, 8232 JN Lelystad, The Netherlands.)

  • Laurens Znidarsic

    (Department Values, Technology and Innovation, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands)

  • Andreas Voss

    (Radboudumc, 6525 GA Nijmegen, The Netherlands
    Canisius-Wilhelmina Hospital, 6532 SZ Nijmegen, The Netherlands)

  • Simon Donders

    (Breda University of Applied Sciences, 4817 JS Breda, The Netherlands)

  • Iris Kamphorst

    (Breda University of Applied Sciences, 4817 JS Breda, The Netherlands)

  • Maarten van Rijn

    (Breda University of Applied Sciences, 4817 JS Breda, The Netherlands)

  • Dimitri Bonthuis

    (Fieldlab Program Committee, 1507 CC Zaandam, The Netherlands)

  • Merit Clocquet

    (Fieldlab Program Committee, 1507 CC Zaandam, The Netherlands)

  • Maarten Schram

    (Fieldlab Program Committee, 1507 CC Zaandam, The Netherlands)

  • Rutger Scharloo

    (Fieldlab Program Committee, 1507 CC Zaandam, The Netherlands)

  • Tim Boersma

    (Fieldlab Program Committee, 1507 CC Zaandam, The Netherlands)

  • Tim Stobernack

    (Radboudumc, 6525 GA Nijmegen, The Netherlands)

  • Pieter van Gelder

    (Department Values, Technology and Innovation, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands)

Abstract

In response to the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2, many governments decided in 2020 to impose lockdowns on societies. Although the package of measures that constitute such lockdowns differs between countries, it is a general rule that contact between people, especially in large groups of people, is avoided or prohibited. The main reasoning behind these measures is to prevent healthcare systems from becoming overloaded. As of 2021 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 are available, but these do not guarantee 100% risk reduction and it will take a while for the world to reach a sufficient immune status. This raises the question of whether and under which conditions events like theater shows, conferences, professional sports events, concerts, and festivals can be organized. The current paper presents a COVID-19 risk quantification method for (large-scale) events. This method can be applied to events to define an alternative package of measures replacing generic social distancing.

Suggested Citation

  • Bas Kolen & Laurens Znidarsic & Andreas Voss & Simon Donders & Iris Kamphorst & Maarten van Rijn & Dimitri Bonthuis & Merit Clocquet & Maarten Schram & Rutger Scharloo & Tim Boersma & Tim Stobernack &, 2022. "SARS-CoV-2 Risk Quantification Model and Validation Based on Large-Scale Dutch Test Events," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-11, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:12:p:7238-:d:837767
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    Keywords

    COVID-19; infection risk; events;
    All these keywords.

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